Vietnam’s Economic Landscape in the First 8 Months of 2025: Recovery Gains Strength Amid Global Challenges

Vietnam’s economy maintained its strong recovery in the first eight months of 2025, with healthy growth across key sectors such as industry, foreign direct investment (FDI), exports, and business formation.

Although many potential vulnerabilities remain, especially in livestock, inflation pressures, and public investment disbursement, Vietnam has demonstrated impressive resilience after the turbulence of the early 2020s. Below is a comprehensive analysis of the latest official data.

📈 Industrial Production Surges 8.5% as Manufacturing Leads the Recovery

Vietnam’s industrial production index (IIP) rose 8.5% year-on-year in the first eight months, surpassing the 8.4% growth recorded during the same period in 2024. This signals continued strong recovery momentum in manufacturing and related sectors.

• Manufacturing output, which accounts for most of the IIP, grew 10.0%, contributing 8.1 percentage points to the overall IIP.
• Electricity production and distribution rose 4.9%.
• Water supply and waste management saw an increase of 9.1%.
• Mining continued to decline, dropping 1.1%, although this improved from the 6.5% drop in 2024.

Notably, several sub-sectors recorded double-digit growth:

• Motor vehicles: +27.4%
• Rubber and plastics: +17.5%
• Textiles and garments: +13.9%
• Leather and footwear: +13.4%
• Furniture: +11.8%
• Basic metals: +10.5%

All 34 provinces recorded positive IIP growth, with the most dynamic growth observed in regions that host major industrial parks such as Bac Ninh, Binh Duong, and Ho Chi Minh City.

🚢 Export-Import Activities Hit USD 598 Billion; Trade Surplus at USD 13.99 Billion

Vietnam’s total external trade in goods reached USD 597.93 billion in the first eight months of 2025—an impressive 16.3% increase year-on-year.

📤 Exports:

• Total export turnover was USD 305.96 billion, up 14.8% year-on-year.
• The FDI sector, including crude oil, contributed USD 229.27 billion (+19.3%), accounting for nearly 75% of exports.
• The domestic sector accounted for USD 76.69 billion, up 3.2%.

📥 Imports:

• Import turnover stood at USD 283.94 billion, up 17.9% year-on-year.
• Vietnam continued to import heavily from China (USD 117.9 billion) and South Korea (USD 58.5 billion).

⚖️ Trade Balance:

• In the first eight months, Vietnam posted a trade surplus of USD 13.99 billion.
• The FDI contributed a surplus of USD 32.07 billion, while the domestic sector recorded a deficit of USD 18.08 billion.

Top export markets:

• United States: USD 99.1 billion
• EU: USD 48.3 billion
• China: USD 38.6 billion

💼 Business Formation Booms; Over 128,000 New Enterprises Registered

Vietnam’s private sector demonstrated strong vitality with 128,200 new enterprises registered in the first eight months of 2025, up 15.7% year-on-year. These businesses registered a combined capital of over VND 1,254 trillion (+26.1%).

• Average capital per new firm: VND 9.8 billion (+9.0%)
• Total additional capital into the economy via new and existing firms: VND 4,135.7 trillion (+105.3%)
• Reactivated businesses: 81,100 (+41.4%)

In total, over 209,000 businesses either launched or resumed operations, averaging 26,200 new/reactivated firms per month.

However, 95,000 firms suspended operations (+14.7%), and 18,100 completed dissolution (+31.5%), suggesting lingering pressures on smaller businesses.

📊 CPI Stable at 3.25%; Inflation Risks Still Present

Vietnam’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 0.05% month-on-month in August and 3.25% year-on-year over the first eight months.

Major inflation drivers:

• Housing, electricity, water, and fuels: +0.21% (August)
• Education: +0.20% due to rising tuition fees
• Out-of-home food and beverages: +0.20%

Offsetting declines:

• Gasoline prices dropped following global market trends
• Food prices fell in August due to an abundant poultry and aquaculture supply

Core inflation—excluding food, fuel, and regulated prices—was up 3.19%, slightly lower than the headline CPI.

💵 Foreign Investment Bounces Back

Vietnam continued to attract foreign capital, with USD 26.14 billion in total FDI pledges, up 27.3% year over year.

FDI Breakdown:

• Newly registered: USD 11.03 billion (2,534 projects)
• Adjusted capital: USD 10.65 billion (996 projects)
• Capital contributions and share purchases: USD 4.46 billion (2,245 transactions)

Top sources of FDI included:

• Singapore
• China
• Japan
• South Korea
• Sweden

Realized FDI:

• Reached USD 15.4 billion, the highest 8-month realization in five years
• Manufacturing remained the largest recipient sector (81.6%)
• Real estate and electricity/gas supply followed

🌾 Agriculture Mixed; Pig Farming Declines While Aquaculture Expands

Agriculture showed uneven performance:

• The summer-autumn rice area fell slightly to 1.9 million hectares
• Autumn-winter rice sowing slowed due to prolonged rains
• Seasonal rice declined in the north but increased in the south

Livestock production saw challenges:

• Pig herds declined in many provinces due to African swine fever
• Poultry farming continued to grow strongly

Aquaculture remained a bright spot:

• Aquatic output rose to 6.42 million tons (+3.0%)
• Shrimp production climbed 5.6%
• Pangasius and white-leg shrimp farming increased with high-tech methods

🏗️ Public Investment Accelerates, But Challenges Remain

The disbursement of state budget investment reached VND 463.2 trillion, equal to 48.3% of the annual plan, up 26.9% year-on-year.

• Centrally managed capital: VND 66.4 trillion (+6.4%)
• Locally managed capital: VND 396.8 trillion (+31.2%)

Despite the growth, some ministries underperformed in disbursement, such as the Ministry of Industry and Trade (−59.5%) and the Ministry of Science and Technology (−12.1%).

🔍 Sectoral Trends to Watch

Electronics and high-tech:

• Output of computers and optical devices rose 7.5%
• Smartphone prices declined, affecting CPI mildly

Food processing:

• Aquafeed, processed foods, and beverages recorded steady gains

Steel, cement, and construction materials:

• Cement and rolled steel saw production increases, aligned with rising infrastructure demand

🌐 Macroeconomic Outlook

Vietnam’s macroeconomic environment appears increasingly stable:

• CPI is under control and within the government's 4.5% inflation target
• The trade surplus is substantial, backed by high export growth
• FDI and business formation are surging, reflecting global investor confidence
• Industrial production is accelerating, particularly in manufacturing and high-tech sectors

However, some structural concerns remain:

• Sluggish public investment disbursement in some key ministries
• Financial stress in parts of the private sector (high business closures)
• Livestock sector volatility due to disease outbreaks

Vietnam’s economic performance in the first eight months of 2025 demonstrates a story of recovery with momentum. With three months remaining in the year, Vietnam is positioned to meet or surpass many of its growth targets. The government’s ongoing focus on infrastructure, digital transformation, and investment reforms will be crucial for maintaining momentum into 2026 and beyond.

 

Promising Signs, But Data Should Be Viewed with Caution

Vietnam’s economic performance in the first eight months of 2025 presents a story of steady recovery and cautious optimism. Key indicators like industrial production, exports, foreign investment, and inflation are broadly trending in positive directions. The country has attracted record-high foreign direct investment, maintained a substantial trade surplus, and stabilized consumer prices while continuing to expand its industrial base.

However, several structural risks and limitations remain. High rates of business closures and suspended operations suggest that many small and medium enterprises are still struggling. Public investment disbursement remains uneven across ministries. Although stable, inflation could face future pressure from global fuel and food markets. The agriculture and livestock sectors continue to suffer from climatic volatility and disease outbreaks.

It’s also essential to approach the data with a critical lens. This report is compiled by the General Statistics Office (GSO), an agency under the authority of Vietnam’s Party and State. As such, figures may reflect political reporting frameworks and lack independent verification.  No third-party or private-sector source is available to validate these numbers at scale.

That said, the trends outlined in this report offer valuable signals for investors, analysts, and policymakers. Vietnam’s long-term economic trajectory remains promising provided that transparency, institutional reform, and policy adaptability continue to improve alongside headline growth metrics.