Vietnam 2035: Toward Prosperity, Creativity, Equity, and Democracy

Vietnam’s Transformation Since Đổi Mới

Vietnam’s story over the last three decades is one of the most remarkable development journeys in the world. Emerging from a war-torn, centrally planned economy, Vietnam embraced the Đổi Mới reforms in 1986 and began a determined march toward modernization and global integration. From that moment, the nation’s economic trajectory changed dramatically.

Today, Vietnam has moved firmly into middle-income status. Per capita income has more than tripled since the early 1990s, and poverty has fallen at one of the fastest rates in history. Economic growth has been consistent, and the benefits have reached much of the population, making Vietnam an example of inclusive development. The country’s transformation from isolation to one of the most dynamic economies in Asia is a source of national pride and international recognition.

Yet with this success comes a new challenge. Past growth was built on favorable demographics, low-cost labor, and integration into global manufacturing chains. The next stage of Vietnam’s development will require new drivers: higher productivity, innovation, environmental sustainability, and stronger institutions.

Opportunities in a Changing Economy

Vietnam today stands at a pivotal moment. The rise of a fast-growing middle class is reshaping the economic landscape. By 2035, more than half of Vietnamese citizens are projected to join the global middle class, creating a powerful domestic consumer base and new demand for services, technology, and higher-value industries.

Urbanization is another force transforming the country. Millions of people are moving into cities, and by 2035, over 50 million Vietnamese will live in urban areas. This shift is expected to generate new economic dynamism, with cities becoming hubs for innovation, productivity, and growth. At the same time, Vietnam’s openness to trade and investment has positioned it at the heart of global supply chains. With free trade agreements and a reputation as a competitive manufacturing base, the country continues to attract strong foreign investment.

However, alongside these opportunities, significant challenges loom. Vietnam is aging rapidly, with the share of citizens over 65 set to double by 2035. This demographic shift will reduce the size of the workforce and increase pressure on pensions and healthcare systems. Productivity growth, once a key driver of prosperity, has slowed, raising concerns about the so-called middle-income trap. Environmental pressures are also growing as industrialization and climate change threaten the sustainability of development, particularly in vulnerable regions such as the Mekong Delta.

Figure 1: Vietnam’s population aging and middle-class expansion toward 2035 (Source: Vietnam 2035 Report)

The Vision for Vietnam 2035

Vietnam 2035, a landmark report developed by the Government of Vietnam and the World Bank, lays out a bold vision for the country’s future. It envisions Vietnam as a prosperous, creative, equitable, and democratic society by 2035. This vision is built on three fundamental pillars: achieving economic prosperity while protecting the environment, ensuring equity and social inclusion, and building a capable, accountable state governed by the rule of law.

The report emphasizes that Vietnam must shift from a growth model driven by labor and capital to one powered by innovation, technology, and efficiency. It highlights the importance of social inclusion, ensuring that all groups—especially ethnic minorities, women, and the disadvantaged—benefit from growth. And it stresses the critical role of institutions, transparency, and governance in sustaining development and building trust.

Pathways to a Modern Vietnam

To realize its vision, Vietnam will need to carry out ambitious reforms. Economic modernization is essential, with a competitive private sector at the center of growth. This means reducing dependence on state-owned enterprises and fostering a climate where domestic businesses can scale and compete globally.

Innovation must become a new engine of growth. Investment in education, research, and digital infrastructure will allow Vietnam to move beyond low-cost manufacturing and into higher-value industries. Urban areas must be reshaped to support livable, efficient, and productive cities that attract talent and investment.

Environmental sustainability cannot be overlooked. Vietnam is one of the most climate-vulnerable countries in the world, and its long-term prosperity will depend on how it adapts to rising sea levels, resource pressures, and pollution. A green development path is not only environmentally necessary but also economically beneficial in the long run.

Equally important is the promotion of equity and social inclusion. Vietnam’s success will be measured not only by GDP growth but also by the opportunities it creates for its citizens. Access to quality healthcare, education, and social protection must expand, particularly for groups that have been left behind.

Finally, the foundation of all progress will be institutional reform. A modern, democratic state that upholds transparency, accountability, and the rule of law will be vital for sustaining growth and maintaining public trust.

Vietnam’s Future Outlook

If Vietnam successfully implements these reforms, its future is bright. By 2035, the country aims to achieve upper middle-income status, with a per capita income of around $18,000 in purchasing power parity terms. With stronger reforms and faster growth, it could even surpass this level, moving closer to the path once taken by South Korea and other high-performing Asian economies.

The Vietnam of the future will not just be wealthier. It will be more innovative, more sustainable, and more inclusive. It will be a country where growth is balanced with environmental stewardship, where opportunities are available to all citizens, and where governance is modern, accountable, and trusted.

Conclusion

Vietnam’s journey from Đổi Mới to today has been extraordinary, but the journey ahead may be even more decisive. The choices made now—on innovation, inclusion, sustainability, and governance—will determine whether the country becomes a high-performing economy by 2035 or remains trapped at middle-income levels.

With its dynamic people, growing middle class, and clear national aspirations, Vietnam has every reason to be optimistic. The next two decades will define its place in the world, and with bold reforms and visionary leadership, Vietnam can achieve its ambition of being not only a prosperous nation but also a just, sustainable, and innovative society.

👉 If you want to learn more about Vietnam’s development strategy and detailed analysis, please download the full Vietnam 2035 Report attached herewith — available for free.