Rising Fertilizer Prices: Global and Vietnam Domestic Trends

Rising Fertilizer Prices: Global and Domestic Trends

Global Market Developments

• Urea: According to Argus, urea prices in the Middle East climbed to USD 410–415 per ton FOB, with Iran maintaining limited production but seeing sales at USD 360 per ton FOB.
• Egypt: Prices for prilled urea increased from USD 432 to USD 450 per ton FOB for February–March delivery.
• Europe: Urea imports slowed; prices stabilized, but nitrate and UAN prices began to rise.
• DAP: The U.S. market saw a USD 4 per ton increase week-on-week, reaching USD 588 per ton FOB Nola. In South Asia, India finalized a deal with Morocco’s OCP to purchase 1.6 million tons of DAP, with delivery spread from February to December 2025.
• NPK: India imported 25,000–30,000 tons of NPK 20-20-0+13S from China at USD 397 per ton CFR. Indian firms also issued new tenders for NPK 15-15-15. In Europe, NPK prices rose by about EUR 5/GBP per ton, and the EU proposed new tariffs on nitrogen and phosphate imports from Russia and Belarus starting July 2025.

Vietnam Domestic Price Updates

Vietnamese urea prices began rising in the second half of January 2025 and continued into February, mirroring global trends. The upward trend was fueled by limited domestic spot supply, increased export volumes, and regional demand differences:

• Cà Mau Urea: VND 11,200/kg in Ho Chi Minh City and Long An; VND 11,900–12,000/kg at Southwest warehouses; up to VND 12,300/kg at level-1 distributors.
• Phú Mỹ Urea: VND 11,300–11,400/kg in HCMC/Long An; VND 10,500–10,850/kg in Southeast warehouses; VND 11,500–11,600/kg in Southern region markets.
• Ninh Bình Urea: Plant price at VND 11,000/kg; VND 11,200–11,300/kg in the South.
• Hà Bắc Urea: Two price adjustments in January brought the plant price to VND 10,900–11,000/kg.

In January 2025 alone, domestic urea prices increased by VND 33–632 per kg compared to December 2024, reaching their highest level since October 2023.

Export Performance

February 2025

• Volume: 186,876 tons (↑ 26.7% MoM; ↑ 8.7% YoY)
• Value: USD 73.9 million (↑ 21.7% MoM; ↑ 1.8% YoY)
• Average Export Price: USD 395.3/ton (↓ 4.0% MoM; ↓ 6.4% YoY)

First Two Months of 2025

• Cumulative Exports: 334,100 tons
• Turnover: USD 134.4 million
• Average Price: USD 402.4/ton (↓ 2.6% YoY)

Key Export Markets (Jan–Feb 2025)

• Cambodia: 83,023 tons, USD 28.78 million — ↑ 22.8% in volume, ↑ 2.7% in value, ↓ 16.4% in price
• South Korea: 69,762 tons, USD 27.13 million — ↑ 17.1% in volume, ↑ 9.8% in value, ↓ 6.3% in price
• Malaysia: 33,059 tons, USD 13.05 million — ↑ 47.6% in volume, ↑ 77.8% in value, ↑ 20.4% in price

Other notable destinations included the Philippines, Taiwan, Japan, Laos, Myanmar, and Thailand, with Taiwan showing a dramatic surge (↑ 1,565% in volume YoY).

Import Performance

February 2025

• Volume: 492,030 tons (↑ 31.6% MoM; ↑ 71.9% YoY)
• Value: USD 141.2 million (↓ 1.8% MoM; ↑ 51.2% YoY)
• Average Import Price: USD 286.9/ton (↓ 25.4% MoM; ↓ 12.1% YoY)

First Two Months of 2025

• Cumulative Imports: 869,279 tons
• Turnover: USD 286.3 million
• Average Price: USD 329.5/ton (↓ 0.5% YoY)

Top Import Sources

• China: 320,104 tons (36.8% share), USD 85.83M — ↑ 9.5% volume, ↑ 32.9% value, ↑ 21.3% price YoY
• Russia: 102,542 tons (11.8%), USD 57.2M — ↓ 15.1% volume, ↓ 24.1% value, ↓ 10.6% price
• Japan: 58,041 tons (6.7%), USD 4.89M — ↑ 11.8% volume, ↓ 6.2% value, ↓ 16.1% price

Additional suppliers included Laos, Canada, Malaysia, Belarus, South Korea, Israel, and Taiwan. Canada and Israel saw significant increases, especially in percentage growth terms.

Domestic Supply and Production

Vietnam's domestic fertilizer supply remains stable and sufficient. The four major urea producers — Phú Mỹ, Cà Mau, Ninh Bình, and Hà Bắc — continued operating steadily in early 2025, with no scheduled maintenance during this period. Estimated February output stood at 225,000 tons, similar to January.

In the Mekong Delta, 90% of the required urea for the Winter-Spring rice crop had already been applied by February, with only 10% left for late-sown or long-duration fields.

According to AgroMonitor:

• Estimated domestic urea consumption in Feb 2025: 100,000 tons (↓ 60,000 tons from January)
• Inventory as of Feb 2025: 411,000 tons (slight increase)
• Domestic prices supported by: Global price trends, potential new Indian tenders, strong demand from the U.S., EU, and Australia

For years, domestic urea supply has consistently exceeded demand, helping maintain food security and eliminate speculative price spikes. Major producers under PetroVietnam — PVFCCo and PVCFC — have secured Q1 export orders and built sufficient reserves to meet domestic needs.

Vietnam Top Fertilizer Importing Companies (Jan–Feb 2025)

Top Fertilizer Importing Companies in Vietnam by Import Value for the First Two Months of 2025 (Unit: Thousand USD)

Conclusion

Despite a moderate decline in fertilizer exports, Vietnam’s fertilizer market has remained resilient in early 2025. The sharp increase in import volume and stable domestic supply demonstrate the sector’s adaptability to global conditions. With strong demand projections, stable production, and favorable international contracts, Vietnam is well-positioned to sustain growth in the fertilizer industry throughout 2025.