Vietnam Banks with high and low profit growth - Projected by MBS

Banks with high-profit growth:

Vietnam Export-Import Commercial Joint Stock Bank (Eximbank) is forecasted to achieve the highest profit growth in Q3/2024, at 70% compared to the same period last year, due to a low base and a stable net interest margin (NIM) compared to Q2/2024. However, for the entire year of 2024, Eximbank's profit is projected to increase only by 16%.

Ho Chi Minh City Development Joint Stock Commercial Bank (HDBank) is expected to see profit growth of 44% in Q3/2024 and 31% for the entire year of 2024. MBS forecasts that HDBank’s credit growth will remain positive as in the first half of the year, while NIM will slightly decrease to 5% in Q3/2024 due to the very favorable NIM growth in the first six months of 2024, allowing HDBank to reduce lending interest rates. Additionally, provisioning expenses are expected to rise sharply compared to last year's period.

Vietnam Prosperity Commercial Joint Stock Bank (VPBank) is expected to see profit growth of 37% in Q3/2024 and 69% for the entire year of 2024. According to MBS, the NIM in Q3/2024 is forecasted to remain stable compared to the first half of the year, boosting credit growth. The consumer lending segment is expected to contribute significantly to the overall credit growth. Meanwhile, provisioning expenses will be similar to the previous quarter.

Tien Phong Commercial Joint Stock Bank (TPBank) is forecasted to see after-tax profit growth of 35% compared to the same period in Q3/2024 and 23% for the whole year. MBS believes that the bank's reduction in lending interest rates will stimulate credit demand. At the same time, TPBank may continue to strengthen provisioning to build a stronger buffer.

Saigon Thuong Tin Commercial Joint Stock Bank (Sacombank) is expected to face credit room limitations in the second half of the year. NIM is forecasted to decline sharply in the second half. The cost-to-income ratio (CIR) remains at 49%, significantly higher than the industry average. However, provisioning expenses will decrease as the bank no longer needs to provision for VAMC bonds. As a result, Sacombank's profit growth in Q3/2024 is expected to reach 29%, with a full-year growth rate of 9%.

Group of Banks with Low-Profit Growth 

According to MBS, there are also four banks with profit growth forecasts below the industry average.

Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam (Vietcombank) is expected to grow by 9% in Q3/2024 and 5% for the entire year. MBS believes that Vietcombank will maintain a 12% growth rate thanks to the recovery in personal loan demand. NIM will remain stable compared to Q2/2024, as Vietcombank continues to lead in reducing interest rates to support customers. Additionally, bad debts will slightly improve as Group 2 debts showed a downward trend.

Asian Commercial Joint Stock Bank (ACB) is forecasted to achieve profit growth of 7% in Q3/2024 and 6% for the whole year, with NIM expected to decline slightly and credit room becoming more limited. However, provisioning expenses are expected to decrease slightly compared to the previous quarter.

Vietnam International Commercial Joint Stock Bank (VIB) is forecasted to see a 19% decrease in profit in Q3/2024 and a 10% decrease for the entire year. Credit growth in Q3/2024 is expected to be more favorable than in the first half of the year, driven by increased secondary home loans due to low interest rates and a stable growth in the apartment market. NIM is projected to remain at 3.8% for the second half of the year.

As for Orient Commercial Joint Stock Bank (OCB), MBS expects profits to decline due to the high base of 2023. NIM is forecasted to decrease as both credit growth fails to meet expectations and retail lending interest rates are forced to drop in order to attract credit. Provisioning expenses are expected to remain at the same level as in Q2/2024 and are projected to be twice as high as in the same period last year. Both Q3/2024 and full-year 2024 profits for OCB are forecasted to decrease by 20% compared to the same period last year.