Vietnam’s monthly economic overview (April, 2024)

An overview of the agro-forestry-fisheries sector

Industrial production

Industrial production in April continues its positive growth trend. The Industrial Production Index (IIP) for April 2024 is estimated to increase by 0.8% compared to the previous month and by 6.3% compared to the same period last year. Over the first four months of 2024, the IIP is estimated to increase by 6.0% compared to the same period last year (a decrease of 2.5% compared to the same period in 2023). Specifically, the manufacturing sector is up by 6.3%, contributing 5.5 percentage points to the overall increase; the production and distribution of electricity is up by 12.3%, contributing 1.1 percentage points; water supply, management of waste and wastewater treatment is up by 5.3%, contributing 0.1 percentage point; while the mining sector is down by 4.6%, reducing by 0.7 percentage points.

The Industrial Production Index for the first four months of 2024 compared to the same period last year increased in 54 localities and decreased in 9 localities nationwide.

The number of workers employed in industrial enterprises as of April 1, 2024, increased by 1.2% compared to the previous month and by 3.4% compared to the same period last year.

Business registration

In April, the whole country saw the establishment of over 15.3 thousand new businesses, up by 8.4% compared to the previous month and down by 4.1% compared to the same period last year. Additionally, there were 7,618 businesses registered for temporary suspension of operations, an increase of 84.1% from the previous month and 6.4% from the same period in 2023; 4,656 businesses suspended operations pending dissolution procedures, a decrease of 6.5% and 20.2%; 1,344 businesses completed dissolution procedures, down by 4.8% and 10.9%.

Over the first four months of 2024, the whole country saw 81.3 thousand businesses registered for establishment and returning to operation, an increase of 3% compared to the same period last year; on average, there were 20.3 thousand new businesses established and returning to operation per month. The number of businesses withdrawing from the market was 86.4 thousand, up by 12.2% compared to the same period last year; on average, there were 21.6 thousand businesses withdrawing from the market per month.

Investment

The realized investment capital from the state budget in April 2024 is estimated to reach nearly 44 trillion VND, an increase of 8.3% compared to the same period last year. Over the first four months of 2024, the realized investment capital from the state budget is estimated at 142.8 trillion VND, equal to 20.1% of the annual plan and up by 5.9% compared to the same period last year (which equaled 18.4% in 2023 and increased by 5.5%).

The total foreign investment registered in Vietnam as of April 20, 2024, including newly registered capital, adjusted capital, and capital contribution, share purchase of foreign investors, reached nearly 9.27 billion USD, up by 4.5% compared to the same period last year.

Foreign direct investment (FDI) realized in Vietnam over the first four months of 2024 is estimated to reach 6.28 billion USD, up by 7.4% compared to the same period last year.

Vietnam's outward investment in the first four months of 2024 saw 36 newly licensed investment projects with a total capital from Vietnam of 98.3 million USD, down by 29.8% compared to the same period last year; there were 3 instances of capital adjustment with an increased capital of 580 thousand USD, a decrease of 95.7%. Overall, the total investment capital from Vietnam outward (newly registered and adjusted capital) reached 98.9 million USD, down by 35.6% compared to the same period last year.

Trade

Retail sales of consumer goods and services

The total retail sales of goods and consumer service revenue at current prices in April 2024 are estimated to reach 522.1 trillion VND, up by 9% compared to the same period last year. Over the first four months of 2024, the total retail sales of goods and consumer service revenue at current prices are estimated to reach 2,062.3 trillion VND, up by 8.5% compared to the same period last year (which saw a 13.3% increase in 2023), if excluding the factor of a 5.3% price increase (compared to an 8.7% increase in 2023).

Exports & imports of goods

In April, the total value of goods exports and imports is estimated to reach 61.20 billion USD, a decrease of 5.2% compared to the previous month and an increase of 15% compared to the same period last year. Over the first four months of 2024, the total value of goods exports and imports reached 238.88 billion USD, up by 15.2% compared to the same period last year, with exports increasing by 15% and imports increasing by 15.4%. The trade balance in goods exports surplus is 8.4 billion USD.

– Exports of goods

The value of goods exports in April 2024 is estimated to reach 30.94 billion USD, a decrease of 8.1% compared to the previous month and an increase of 10.6% compared to the same period last year. Over the first four months of 2024, the value of goods exports is estimated to reach 123.64 billion USD, up by 15% compared to the same period last year. In particular, the domestic economic area reached 33.62 billion USD, an increase of 21%, accounting for 27.2% of the total goods export value; the area with foreign direct investment (including crude oil) reached 90.02 billion USD, up by 12.9%, accounting for 72.8%.

Regarding the structure of export commodity groups in the first four months of 2024, the processed industrial group is estimated to reach 108.27 billion USD, accounting for 87.5%.

– Imports of goods

The value of goods imports in April 2024 is estimated to reach 30.26 billion USD, a decrease of 2% compared to the previous month and an increase of 19.9% compared to the same period last year. Over the first four months of 2024, the value of goods imports is estimated to reach 115.24 billion USD, up by 15.4% compared to the same period last year, with the domestic economic area reaching 41.86 billion USD, an increase of 19.7%; and the area with foreign direct investment reaching 73.38 billion USD, up by 13.1%.

Regarding the structure of import commodity groups in the first four months of 2024, the raw material group is estimated to reach 108.33 billion USD, accounting for 94%.

– Export and import market of goods: Over the first four months of 2024, the United States remained the largest export market for Vietnam, with an estimated value of 34.1 billion USD. China continued to be the largest import market for Vietnam, with an estimated value of 41.6 billion USD.

– Trade balance: In March, the trade surplus was preliminarily estimated at 2.78 billion USD; in the first quarter, it amounted to 7.72 billion USD; and in April, it is estimated at 0.68 billion USD. Overall, over the first four months of 2024, the trade surplus in goods is estimated at 8.4 billion USD (compared to 7.66 billion USD in the same period last year).

Consumer Price Index, Gold Price Index and US Dollar

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in April 2024 increased by 0.07% compared to the previous month. Compared to December 2023, the April CPI rose by 1.19%, and compared to the same period last year, it increased by 4.4%. On average for the first four months of 2024, the CPI increased by 3.93% compared to the same period last year; the core inflation rate rose by 2.81%.

The gold price index in April 2024 increased by 6.95% compared to the previous month; it rose by 17.01% compared to December 2023, and increased by 28.62% compared to the same period last year. On average for the first four months of 2024, it increased by 20.75%.

The US dollar price index in April 2024 increased by 1.2% compared to the previous month; it rose by 3.03% compared to December 2023, and increased by 6.51% compared to the same period last year. On average for the first four months of 2024, it increased by 4.6%.

Source: GSO

Compiled by Vietnam Business Information